Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Abstract. Air pollution is a major issue in China and one of the largest threats to public health. We investigated future changes atmospheric circulation patterns associated with haze events Beijing region severity during these conditions from 2015 2049 under two different aerosol scenarios: maximum technically feasible reduction (MTFR) current legislation scenario (CLE). In both cases greenhouse gas emissions follow Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 CLE frequency increases due weakening East Asian winter monsoon via increased sea level pressure over North Pacific. The rapid anthropogenic precursor MTFR further events, Pacific intensity Siberian high. Even aggressive reductions periods poor visibility, represented by above-normal optical depth (AOD), still occur conjunction haze-favorable circulation. However, mean visibility decreases MTFR, so that are less dangerous this 2050 compared relative baseline. This study reveals competing effects emission on through their direct contribution pollutant source influence A compound consideration impacts should be taken policy making.